Below Replacement-Level TFR of Non-Hindi States – Why the Union Government Must Act Now

Krishna Gopal, joint secretary of the RSS, in a briefing to the media has expressed concerns over impending 'demographic imbalance' in India. Hence, he has urged the Union Government to reformulate the National Population Policy. Here is an excerpt from the press report in DNA that had covered this in more detail:

The policy, he said, aimed at achieving a stable but healthy population by 2045 by optimising the fertility rate to the ideal figure of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) and it was expected that it would be applied uniformly to all sections of the society as this aim was in accordance with the national resources and expected future requirements.

However, the National Fertility & Health Survey (NFHS) of 2005-06 and the 0-6 age group population percentage data of religion in Census 2011, both indicate that the TFR and child ratio "is uneven across the religions", he said. 

Krishna Gopal is right in saying that the fertility rates should be uniform across all sections of the society, and uneven TFRs may lead to serious demographic imbalances. If India aims to achieve the ideal fertility rate of 2.1, it is necessary that all sections of the society uniformly achieve fertility rates of 2.1.

While the RSS’s concern for uneven TFR and the resulting demographic imbalance is based on religious parameters, it is equally important to consider regional and linguistic parameters in the population equation. For, the Union of India is not only diverse in terms of religions but also linguistically and culturally diverse, and such consideration is important. So, let us consider the past TFRs (2007), TFR goals for the eleventh five year plan (2007-12), and the latest available TFR data of some of the states of the Indian Union.

State	Fertility Rate 2007	Eleventh Five Year Plan Target (2012)	Fertility Rate 2013
West Bengal	2.2	1.8	1.6
Punjab	2.2	1.8	1.7
Tamil Nadu	1.8	1.7	1.7
Andhra Pradesh	2.1	1.8	1.8
Maharashtra	2.2	1.9	1.8
Karnataka	2.3	1.8	1.9
Gujarat	2.8	2.2	2.3
Madhya Pradesh	3.7	2.6	2.9
Uttar Pradesh	4.4	3.0	3.1
Bihar	4.3	3.0	3.4

 

As can be seen from the above table, many states were given TFR goals well below 2.1 for the eleventh five-year plan. On what basis did the Planning Commission set TFR targets below 2.1, to states like West Bengal, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka etc.? Was not the Planning Commission aware that such targets are unscientific and can lead to large demographic imbalances when it set them? Didn’t the planning commission know that TFR below 2.1 is suicidal to any community? Or was it deliberate?

Incompetence or deliberation, such an act by a ‘national’ institute of such repute will be interpreted as an unethical one and will lead to mistrust in India’s federal setup.

It seems, the twelfth five year plan (2012-2017) too has not considered the state-wise uneven TFRs, especially those falling below the replacement levels. In reviewing the goals accomplished in the eleventh five year plan, the twelfth plan makes an interesting observation –

Replacement level TFR, namely 2.1, has been attained by nine states. High fertility remains a problem in seven States…

In reality, those nine states namely, West Bengal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Jammu and Kashmir, have not just achieved a replacement level TFR of 2.1, but they are actually dangerously slipping below that level. And this is all by plan.

The twelfth plan does not alarm these states of their dropping TFR levels, but has set an overall target for India at 2.1, which it aims to achieve by 2017. On the reduction of India’s TFR to 2.1 the planning commission says:

 India is on track for the achievement of a TFR target of 2.1 by 2017, which is necessary to achieve net replacement level of unity, and realise the long cherished goal of the National Health Policy, 1983 and National Population Policy of 2000

How will this be achieved? As is evident, it will not be achieved by maintaining a healthy TFR of 2.1 across all member states and demography of the Union. It will be achieved by further slumping the TFRs of the Kannadigas, the Tamils, the Marathis, the Bengalis and the Punjabis, whose fertility rates are already well below replacement levels. Whereas the population of states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh will continue to grow.

Just last week, China announced a shift from its decades-old one-child policy to a two-child policy in the wake of decreasing TFR and ageing population. If RSS is sincerely concerned about all the peoples of India, represented by diverse languages and cultures, it should also consider uneven and falling TFR levels of the above mentioned regions seriously. It is its political associate, the BJP, which currently holds the reins of power at New Delhi. So, the RSS should to take up the issue with the Government of India. At the same time, the NDA government should earnestly work towards getting the fertility rate of these non-Hindi states upwards to 2.1.